Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Redskins (-7)
I find this spread to be suspect. The Redskins really shouldn't be favored by seven over anybody, yet the line has moved to -7.5 at some books. As explained on the show, 3 and 7 are key numbers when gambling on football. When the bookies move the line from 3 to 3.5 or 7 to 7.5, you autoplay the favorite, or at least that's been my philosophy and it's been profitable over the years.
The last seven games between these two teams have been decided by six points or less, and last three have been decided by a combined six points. So, please tell me why the Redskins are 7-point chalks today? Because they win by double digits, that's why. Oh, and Redskins won't see their home field again until December 7th against the Rams. Look for them to get a big home win today knowing they won't be back for quite some time. Redskins 30 Buccaneers 17.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New Orleans Saints (-7)
The New Orleans Saints are simply a different animal at home. Drew Brees is 11-1 last 12 home games with 4,102 passing yards and 37 touchdowns. The Bengals are simply a mess. Giovanni Bernard's absence hurts the Bengals chances today, and their lack of getting to the quarterback (29th in sacks) will allow Brees to have a field day. Also, Saints are 26-0 under Sean Payton when they do not commit a turnover. If Brees has time in the pocket, and there are no dumb mistakes made by the playmakers, this will be a long day for Bengals backers. Saints in a must-win situation, as the horrid NFC South is still up for grabs. Look for the Saints to avoid a rare 2-game losing streak in the dome and get a win to stay in the hunt. Saints 34 Bengals 21.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs. New York Giants
Aldon Smith returns for the 49ers after a nine-game suspension. Not good news for a struggling Giants offense that has had issues with keeping turnovers to a minimum. At 3-6, the Giants season is all but over. At 5-4, the 49ers need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. More bad news for New York, as their leading tackler, LB Jacquian Williams, has a concussion and will not play after being sent home earlier in the week. The Giants historically are not a good bet in the month of November, going 19-44-2 against the spread in their last 65 games, and 4-13 against the spread last 17 in week 11. 49ers 27 Giants 21.
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
Maybe Ryan Mallett will evolve into a great quarterback at some point, I just don't think it starts tomorrow in the Dawg Pound. Mallett will take over for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has struggled all season. Problem I have here, is that Mallett will be doing it without star running back Arian Foster, who has already been ruled out. Browns defense is legit, and Foster is the Texans main playmaker. Now it goes into the hands of a guy who has four career pass attempts. One of them being completed, one being intercepted.
Good news for the Browns secondary, as their star safety Tashaun Gipson has been cleared to play. Let's also throw in the fact that Ben Tate played second fiddle to Foster in Houston for years. I'm sure Tate will want to make a big impact in this game. Let the good times roll for Cleveland as Hoyer and co. get it done at home against a team with a new quarterback and a depleted rushing attack. Browns 24 Texans 17.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Ugh, this is one of those games where I'm not looking at past matchups or recent performances. Nobody in their right mind should back the Bears right now, so I won't blame you if you fade this play. Here's the deal...the Bears STINK right now. Marc Trestman is over his head as an NFL head coach, Mel Tucker is one of the worst defensive coordinators of all-time, and the only thing elite about Jay Cutler is his paycheck. The Bears have yet to win a game at Soldier Field, and heads will roll if they lose this week to the Vikings. It's that simple. If the Bears want to save their coach(es) then they show up today. If they want to save face and make the fans happy, they show up today.
Shockingly, the last time Chicagoans saw a home win, was December 9th of last year against the Cowboys. That's gross. Far too many times have we seen this in Chicago. What is supposed to be a positive season with high hopes, quickly turns into another disappointing year with no chance at the playoffs. We saw it in the Lovie Smith era multiple times. Rattle off a few meaningless wins, finishing 7-9, 8-8, and miss the playoffs. Matter of fact, I remember a game where Lovie beat the Vikings to finish 8-8 already eliminated from playoff contention. I think it cost the Bears 4 spots in the draft. Anyways, look for the same result here. Bears will click on offense, god help the defense. Bears 35 Vikings 31.
*Side note on the Bears game. If you aren't comfortable with the Bears -2.5, the over 47 should be good as well.
Don't forget to turn in to Miss V's show every Monday, Tuesday, and Friday as we talk fantasy football, game picks, and more. You can also catch Sportsblog partners Terez Owens and Juan Elway on the show with the latest sports gossip and best fantasy football advice around.
Don't forget to follow me on twitter @windycityiggy